@article{hess-30-1487-2026,

title = {A lesson in preparedness: assessing the effectiveness of low-cost post-wildfire flood protection measures for the catastrophic flood in Kineta, Greece},

author = {G Papaioannou and A Alamanos and M Basheer and N Nagkoulis and V Markogianni and G Varlas and A Plataniotis and A Papadopoulos and E Dimitriou and P Koundouri},

url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/30/1487/2026/},

doi = {10.5194/hess-30-1487-2026},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-01-01},

journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},

volume = {30},

number = {6},

pages = {1487–1501},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Babker2025,

title = {Comparative Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in Capturing Hydrological Extremes in a Mesoscale Heterogeneous Catchment in Austria},

author = {Zryab Babker and Mohammed Basheer and Tim G Reichenau and Jürgen Komma and Oscar M Baez-Villanueva and Morteza Zargar and Karl Schneider},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70359},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70359},

issn = {0885-6087},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-12-01},

journal = {Hydrological Processes},

volume = {39},

number = {12},

pages = {e70359},

publisher = {John Wiley & Sons, Ltd},

abstract = {ABSTRACT Accurate representation of extreme precipitation is crucial for assessing flood hazards and developing risk mitigation strategies. For such applications, gridded Precipitation Products (PPs) can be a promising alternative to traditional point measurements, especially in regions where such measurements are sparse or non-existent. However, the accuracy of PPs in representing extreme precipitation should be evaluated before use. In this study, we evaluate the performance of four PPs (SPARTACUS v2.1, IMERG-F v07, CHIRPS v2.0, and ERA5-Land) against 33 precipitation gauges at a daily time scale over the Kamp catchment in Austria for the period 1998?2020. The hydrological response in the catchment is influenced not only by the intensity of extreme precipitation events but also by antecedent soil moisture and seasonal conditions. Continuous and categorical performance metrics are used to evaluate the performance of the PPs at gauge locations. Additionally, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+) model is used to assess the reliability of PPs when used as forcings for hydrological modelling. The results reveal that while most evaluated products can detect no-rain events, their ability to capture extreme precipitation events varies notably. SPARTACUS v2.1 exhibited the best ability to detect extremes at gauge locations, resulting in streamflow simulation that closely matched the observed data. IMERG-F v07 demonstrated moderate performance in both extreme precipitation detection and corresponding peak flow generation. In contrast, CHIRPS v2.0 and ERA5-Land showed poor performance in representing extreme precipitation, resulting in underestimated high flows and lower reliability in simulating flood-related hydrological processes. These findings highlight the importance of evaluating the ability of PPs in capturing extreme precipitation to ensure reliable simulation of flood peaks and hydrological extremes. We conclude that catchment-specific validation linking precipitation extremes to hydrological responses is essential for selecting appropriate precipitation forcings for hydrological applications.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Ashraf2025,

title = {Delivering equity in low-carbon multisector infrastructure planning},

author = {Adil Ashraf and Mohammed Basheer and Jose M Gonzalez and Eduardo A Martínez Ceseña and Mikiyas Etichia and Emmanuel Obuobie and Andrea Bottacin-busolin and Jan Adamowski and Mathaios Panteli},

url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59738-7},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-025-59738-7},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-01-01},

journal = {Nature Communications},

number = {5320},

publisher = {Springer US},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Basheer2024,

title = {Water-energy-food planning and operations framework for river basins with a case study on the Blue Nile},

author = {Mohammed Basheer and Khalid Siddig and Claudia Ringler},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130801},

doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130801},

issn = {0022-1694},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Hydrology},

volume = {631},

pages = {130801},

publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},

abstract = {Infrastructure in river basins is essential to achieving several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 2 on zero hunger, SDG 6 on water and sanitation, and SDG 7 on affordable and clean energy. However, important tradeoffs and synergies need to be navigated across these goals as both water and resources for infrastructure investments are limited. In transboundary river basins, such tradeoffs can transcend countries, creating a complex, interconnected system of water-energy-food linkages. With increasing pressures on the Blue Nile's water resources from population and economic growth and climate change, an analytical framework for joint planning of these essential human development goals at a fine temporal resolution and considering multi-national priorities can enhance the potential to achieve water, energy, and food security. In this study, we develop and apply a framework for water resources planning in the Blue Nile using four steps: (1) understanding the water-energy-food nexus management landscape through stakeholder engagement and literature review; (2) developing a detailed daily simulator that captures major nexus components and objectives at a fine temporal scale; (3) linking the simulator to an Artificial intelligence-based search algorithm to design efficient agricultural and dam operation portfolios considering national and sectoral priorities; and (4) presenting the results using interactive visualization tools to facilitate dialogue and support decisions. Our results identify efficient operation plans for large dams on the Blue Nile for alternative cropping patterns in expanded irrigation areas in Sudan that minimize tradeoffs across water, energy, and food objectives.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Siddig2024,

title = {We need to know the economic impacts of Sudan's ongoing conflict},

author = {Khalid Siddig and Mohammed Basheer},

doi = {10.1038/s41562-024-01883-y},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Nature Human Behaviour},

publisher = {Springer US},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Etichia2024,

title = {Energy trade tempers Nile water conflict},

author = {Mikiyas Etichia and Mohammed Basheer and Ruben Bravo and Jose Gutierrez and Atsede Endegnanew and Jose M Gonzalez and Anthony Hurford and James Tomlinson and Eduardo Martinez and Mathaios Panteli and Julien J. Harou},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00222-9},

doi = {10.1038/s44221-024-00222-9},

isbn = {4422102400},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Nature Water},

volume = {2},

number = {April},

pages = {337–349},

publisher = {Springer},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Basheer2024a,

title = {PyLandslide: A Python tool for landslide susceptibility mapping and uncertainty analysis},

author = {Mohammed Basheer and Thomas Oommen},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106055},

doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106055},

issn = {1364-8152},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Modelling & Software},

volume = {177},

pages = {106055},

abstract = {Mitigating the impacts of landslides and planning resilient infrastructure necessitates assessing the exposure to this hazard through, for example, susceptibility mapping involving the spatial integration of various contributing factors. Here, we introduce PyLandslide, an open-source Python tool that leverages machine learning and sensitivity analysis to quantify the weights of various contributing factors, estimate the associated uncertainties, and generate susceptibility maps. We apply PyLandslide to the case of rainfall-triggered landslides in Italy driven by historical precipitation data (1981–2023) and nine climate projections for the mid-century (2041–2050). Results highlight distance to roads as the most influential factor in determining landslide susceptibility in Italy, followed by slope. Our findings reveal an overall reduction in susceptibility in the mid-century compared to the historical period; however, the directional changes vary spatially. Uncertainty analysis should play a central role in decision-making on landslides, where weights are intricately linked to investments.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Basheer2024c,

title = {Greening hydropower in Africa},

author = {Mohammed Basheer},

doi = {10.1038/s41893-024-01359-x},

isbn = {4189302401367},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Nature Sustainability},

publisher = {Springer US},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Basheer2024d,

title = {Armed conflict as a catalyst for increasing flood risk},

author = {Mohammed Basheer and Nadir Ahmed Elagib},

url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6fb6},

doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ad6fb6},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Research Letters},

volume = {19},

issue = {10},

pages = {104034},

abstract = {Armed conflict has many adverse impacts beyond violence such as increasing risks of natural hazards. Analyses of the interactions between flood risks and armed conflict are essential for developing effective policies and strategies to address both challenges. This study aims to develop conceptual and analytical socio-hydrological frameworks for assessing how armed conflict can impact flood risks. The frameworks postulate a link between armed conflict and flood vulnerability, given that armed conflict creates unique challenges that exacerbate the effects of floods. Our conceptual framework identifies routes through which armed conflict affects vulnerability to floods, such as damage to infrastructure, population displacement and density, weak governance, and less awareness, resulting in lower resilience, higher susceptibility, and increased flood vulnerability and risk. Our analytical framework uses flood modeling to evaluate flood hazards and incorporates spatial data related to armed conflict zones, nighttime light, population classification by age, land price, land cover, and rural/urban areas classification. We take Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan, as a case study in view of its armed conflict that erupted in 2023. By highlighting the linkages between armed conflict and flood risk, this study contributes to conceptualizing the broader interlinkages between conflict and environmental systems. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating conflict analysis with disaster risk management strategies. We encourage collaboration between humanitarian, environmental, and security sectors to improve preparedness, response, and resilience in conflict-affected regions. While our analysis for Khartoum is based on conflict zones in the early stages of the conflict and uses simple estimates for conflict vulnerability contribution, the proposed frameworks provide groundwork for assessing changes in flood risk in Sudan and other conflict regions around the world.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Basheer2024e,

title = {Toward integrated dam assessment: evaluating multi-dimensional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan},

author = {Mohammed Basheer and Khalid Siddig and Zuhal Elnour and Mosab Ahmed and Claudia Ringler},

url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7744},

doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ad7744},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Research Letters},

volume = {19},

number = {10},

pages = {104067},

abstract = {The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile is expected to influence many ecosystem services, such as flood regulation, hydro-electricity production, food supply, and habitat provision, among others. Understanding these impacts (positive and negative) requires a comprehensive evaluation framework. This study develops and applies an integrated simulation framework for assessing the impacts of the GERD on Sudan, focusing on the simultaneous economywide effects of riverine flood hazards, irrigation water supply, hydropower generation, and floodplain-dependent industries, namely traditional fired clay brick production. The simulation framework incorporates three models: a river infrastructure system model, a flood model, and a Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results indicate positive impacts for hydropower generation and flood control, marginal benefits for water supply to existing irrigation, and negative consequences for brick production and the construction sector. Assuming that the GERD starts its long-term operation in 2025, we find an overall positive economic impact on Sudan's Gross Domestic Product in 2025, with an increase of up to just over 0.1%, subject to river flow conditions. Recognizing the differences in impacts across sectors and income groups, the study emphasizes the need for interventions that ameliorate negative effects. While the study captures several impacts, other effects on the environment, recession agriculture, and soil fertility require further investigation. Still, our findings underscore the importance of adopting an integrated simulation approach to dam evaluation, acknowledging the interconnected nature of water and related sectors in national economies.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Basheer2024f,

title = {Economic impacts of large dams on downstream brickmaking in developing countries},

author = {Mohammed Basheer and Zuhal Elnour and Khalid Siddig and Harald Grethe},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2024.2411409},

doi = {10.1080/01446193.2024.2411409},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Construction Management and Economics},

pages = {1–13},

publisher = {Routledge},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Gonzalez2023,

title = {Designing diversified renewable energy systems to balance multisector performance},

author = {Jose M Gonzalez and James Tomlinson and Eduardo Martinez and Mohammed Basheer and Emmanuel Obuobie and Philip T Padi and Salifu Addo and Rasheed Baisie and Mikiyas Etichia and Anthony Hurford and Andrea Bottacin-busolin and John Matthews and James Dalton and D Mark Smith and Justin Sheffield and Mathaios Panteli and Julien J. Harou},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-01033-0},

doi = {10.1038/s41893-022-01033-0},

isbn = {4189302201},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

urldate = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Nature Sustainability},

volume = {6},

pages = {415–427},

abstract = {Renewable energy system development and improved operation can mitigate climate change. In many regions, hydropower is called to counterbalance the temporal variability of intermittent renewables like solar and wind. However, using hydropower to integrate these renewables can affect aquatic ecosystems and increase cross-sectoral water conflicts. We develop and apply an artificial intelligence-assisted multisector design framework in Ghana, which shows how hydropower's flexibility alone could enable expanding intermittent renewables by 38% but would increase sub-daily Volta River flow variability by up to 22 times compared to historical baseload hydropower operations. This would damage river ecosystems and reduce agricultural sector revenues by US$169 million per year. A diversified investment strategy identified using the proposed framework, including intermittent renewables, bioenergy, transmission lines and strategic hydropower re-operation could reduce sub-daily flow variability and enhance agricultural performance while meeting future national energy service goals and reducing CO2 emissions. The tool supports national climate planning instruments such as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by steering towards diversified and efficient power systems and highlighting their sectoral and emission trade-offs and synergies. Increased},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Basheer2023,

title = {Negotiating Nile infrastructure management should consider climate change uncertainties},

author = {Mohammed Basheer and Victor Nechifor and Alvaro Calzadilla and Solomon Gebrechorkos and David Pritchard and Nathan Forsythe and Jose M Gonzalez and Justin Sheffield and Hayley J. Fowler and Julien J. Harou},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01557-5},

doi = {10.1038/s41558-022-01557-5},

isbn = {4155802201},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {13},

number = {1},

pages = {17–19},

publisher = {Springer US},

address = {Washington, D.C},

institution = {International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)},

abstract = {High uncertainty exists in the projected climate change impacts on the Nile's economies and water-dependent sectors. Under these uncertainties, managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam cooperatively and adaptively can produce economic and water management benefits for Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Basheer2023c,

title = {Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties},

author = {Mohammed Basheer and Victor Nechifor and Alvaro Calzadilla and Solomon Gebrechorkos and David Pritchard and Nathan Forsythe and Jose Gonzalez and Justin Sheffield and Hayley J. Fowler and Julien J. Harou},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6},

doi = {10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {13},

number = {1},

pages = {48–57},

publisher = {Springer US},

abstract = {The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands for river-system-related services and political tensions between the riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile can help alleviate some of these stressors and tensions. Here we present a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by designing a cooperative adaptive management policy for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances the transboundary economic and biophysical interests of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. This shows that if the three countries compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Basheer2023d,

title = {Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties},

author = {Mohammed Basheer and Victor Nechifor and Alvaro Calzadilla and Solomon Gebrechorkos and David Pritchard and Nathan Forsythe and Jose Gonzalez and Justin Sheffield and Hayley J. Fowler and Julien J. Harou},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6},

doi = {10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {13},

number = {1},

pages = {48–57},

publisher = {Springer US},

abstract = {The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands for river-system-related services and political tensions between the riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile can help alleviate some of these stressors and tensions. Here we present a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by designing a cooperative adaptive management policy for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances the transboundary economic and biophysical interests of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. This shows that if the three countries compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Basheer2022,

title = {Balancing national economic policy outcomes for sustainable development},

author = {Mohammed Basheer and Victor Nechifor and Alvaro Calzadilla and Claudia Ringler and David Hulme and Julien J. Harou},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32415-9},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-32415-9},

issn = {2041-1723},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

urldate = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {13},

number = {1},

pages = {5041},

address = {Washington, D.C},

institution = {World Bank Group},

series = {Policy Research Working Paper},

abstract = {The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim at jointly improving economic, social, and environmental outcomes for human prosperity and planetary health. However, designing national economic policies that support advancement across multiple Sustainable Development Goals is hindered by the complexities of multi-sector economies and often conflicting policies. To address this, we introduce a national-scale design framework that can enable policymakers to sift through complex, non-linear, multi-sector policy spaces to identify efficient policy portfolios that balance economic, social, and environmental goals. The framework combines economy-wide sustainability simulation and artificial intelligence-driven multiobjective, multi-SDG policy search and machine learning. The framework can support multi-sector, multi-actor policy deliberation to screen efficient policy portfolios. We demonstrate the utility of the framework for a case study of Egypt by identifying policy portfolios that achieve efficient mixes of poverty and inequality reduction, economic growth, and climate change mitigation. The results show that integrated policy strategies can help achieve sustainable development while balancing adverse economic, social, and political impacts of reforms.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Nechifor2022,

title = {Financing national scale energy projects in developing countries – An economy-wide evaluation of Ghana's Bui Dam},

author = {Victor Nechifor and Mohammed Basheer and Alvaro Calzadilla and Emmanuel Obuobie and Julien J. Harou},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106065},

doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106065},

issn = {0140-9883},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

urldate = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Energy Economics},

volume = {111},

number = {April},

pages = {106065},

publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}