Publications
1.
Basheer, Mohammed; Siddig, Khalid; Ringler, Claudia
Water-energy-food planning and operations framework for river basins with a case study on the Blue Nile Journal Article
In: Journal of Hydrology, vol. 631, pp. 130801, 2024, ISSN: 0022-1694.
@article{Basheer2024,
title = {Water-energy-food planning and operations framework for river basins with a case study on the Blue Nile},
author = {Mohammed Basheer and Khalid Siddig and Claudia Ringler},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130801},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130801},
issn = {0022-1694},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-01},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
volume = {631},
pages = {130801},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
abstract = {Infrastructure in river basins is essential to achieving several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 2 on zero hunger, SDG 6 on water and sanitation, and SDG 7 on affordable and clean energy. However, important tradeoffs and synergies need to be navigated across these goals as both water and resources for infrastructure investments are limited. In transboundary river basins, such tradeoffs can transcend countries, creating a complex, interconnected system of water-energy-food linkages. With increasing pressures on the Blue Nile's water resources from population and economic growth and climate change, an analytical framework for joint planning of these essential human development goals at a fine temporal resolution and considering multi-national priorities can enhance the potential to achieve water, energy, and food security. In this study, we develop and apply a framework for water resources planning in the Blue Nile using four steps: (1) understanding the water-energy-food nexus management landscape through stakeholder engagement and literature review; (2) developing a detailed daily simulator that captures major nexus components and objectives at a fine temporal scale; (3) linking the simulator to an Artificial intelligence-based search algorithm to design efficient agricultural and dam operation portfolios considering national and sectoral priorities; and (4) presenting the results using interactive visualization tools to facilitate dialogue and support decisions. Our results identify efficient operation plans for large dams on the Blue Nile for alternative cropping patterns in expanded irrigation areas in Sudan that minimize tradeoffs across water, energy, and food objectives.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Infrastructure in river basins is essential to achieving several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 2 on zero hunger, SDG 6 on water and sanitation, and SDG 7 on affordable and clean energy. However, important tradeoffs and synergies need to be navigated across these goals as both water and resources for infrastructure investments are limited. In transboundary river basins, such tradeoffs can transcend countries, creating a complex, interconnected system of water-energy-food linkages. With increasing pressures on the Blue Nile's water resources from population and economic growth and climate change, an analytical framework for joint planning of these essential human development goals at a fine temporal resolution and considering multi-national priorities can enhance the potential to achieve water, energy, and food security. In this study, we develop and apply a framework for water resources planning in the Blue Nile using four steps: (1) understanding the water-energy-food nexus management landscape through stakeholder engagement and literature review; (2) developing a detailed daily simulator that captures major nexus components and objectives at a fine temporal scale; (3) linking the simulator to an Artificial intelligence-based search algorithm to design efficient agricultural and dam operation portfolios considering national and sectoral priorities; and (4) presenting the results using interactive visualization tools to facilitate dialogue and support decisions. Our results identify efficient operation plans for large dams on the Blue Nile for alternative cropping patterns in expanded irrigation areas in Sudan that minimize tradeoffs across water, energy, and food objectives.
2.
Siddig, Khalid; Basheer, Mohammed
We need to know the economic impacts of Sudan's ongoing conflict Journal Article
In: Nature Human Behaviour, 2024.
@article{Siddig2024,
title = {We need to know the economic impacts of Sudan's ongoing conflict},
author = {Khalid Siddig and Mohammed Basheer},
doi = {10.1038/s41562-024-01883-y},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
journal = {Nature Human Behaviour},
publisher = {Springer US},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
3.
Etichia, Mikiyas; Basheer, Mohammed; Bravo, Ruben; Gutierrez, Jose; Endegnanew, Atsede; Gonzalez, Jose M; Hurford, Anthony; Tomlinson, James; Martinez, Eduardo; Panteli, Mathaios; Harou, Julien J.
Energy trade tempers Nile water conflict Journal Article
In: Nature Water, vol. 2, no. April, pp. 337–349, 2024, ISBN: 4422102400.
@article{Etichia2024,
title = {Energy trade tempers Nile water conflict},
author = {Mikiyas Etichia and Mohammed Basheer and Ruben Bravo and Jose Gutierrez and Atsede Endegnanew and Jose M Gonzalez and Anthony Hurford and James Tomlinson and Eduardo Martinez and Mathaios Panteli and Julien J. Harou},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00222-9},
doi = {10.1038/s44221-024-00222-9},
isbn = {4422102400},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-01},
journal = {Nature Water},
volume = {2},
number = {April},
pages = {337–349},
publisher = {Springer},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
4.
Basheer, Mohammed; Oommen, Thomas
PyLandslide: A Python tool for landslide susceptibility mapping and uncertainty analysis Journal Article
In: Environmental Modelling & Software, vol. 177, pp. 106055, 2024, ISSN: 1364-8152.
@article{Basheer2024a,
title = {PyLandslide: A Python tool for landslide susceptibility mapping and uncertainty analysis},
author = {Mohammed Basheer and Thomas Oommen},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106055},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106055},
issn = {1364-8152},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-01},
journal = {Environmental Modelling & Software},
volume = {177},
pages = {106055},
abstract = {Mitigating the impacts of landslides and planning resilient infrastructure necessitates assessing the exposure to this hazard through, for example, susceptibility mapping involving the spatial integration of various contributing factors. Here, we introduce PyLandslide, an open-source Python tool that leverages machine learning and sensitivity analysis to quantify the weights of various contributing factors, estimate the associated uncertainties, and generate susceptibility maps. We apply PyLandslide to the case of rainfall-triggered landslides in Italy driven by historical precipitation data (1981–2023) and nine climate projections for the mid-century (2041–2050). Results highlight distance to roads as the most influential factor in determining landslide susceptibility in Italy, followed by slope. Our findings reveal an overall reduction in susceptibility in the mid-century compared to the historical period; however, the directional changes vary spatially. Uncertainty analysis should play a central role in decision-making on landslides, where weights are intricately linked to investments.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Mitigating the impacts of landslides and planning resilient infrastructure necessitates assessing the exposure to this hazard through, for example, susceptibility mapping involving the spatial integration of various contributing factors. Here, we introduce PyLandslide, an open-source Python tool that leverages machine learning and sensitivity analysis to quantify the weights of various contributing factors, estimate the associated uncertainties, and generate susceptibility maps. We apply PyLandslide to the case of rainfall-triggered landslides in Italy driven by historical precipitation data (1981–2023) and nine climate projections for the mid-century (2041–2050). Results highlight distance to roads as the most influential factor in determining landslide susceptibility in Italy, followed by slope. Our findings reveal an overall reduction in susceptibility in the mid-century compared to the historical period; however, the directional changes vary spatially. Uncertainty analysis should play a central role in decision-making on landslides, where weights are intricately linked to investments.
5.
Basheer, Mohammed
Greening hydropower in Africa Journal Article
In: Nature Sustainability, 2024, ISBN: 4189302401367.
@article{Basheer2024c,
title = {Greening hydropower in Africa},
author = {Mohammed Basheer},
doi = {10.1038/s41893-024-01359-x},
isbn = {4189302401367},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
journal = {Nature Sustainability},
publisher = {Springer US},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
6.
Basheer, Mohammed; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed
Armed conflict as a catalyst for increasing flood risk Journal Article
In: Environmental Research Letters, vol. 19, iss. 10, pp. 104034, 2024.
@article{Basheer2024d,
title = {Armed conflict as a catalyst for increasing flood risk},
author = {Mohammed Basheer and Nadir Ahmed Elagib},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6fb6},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ad6fb6},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-01},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
volume = {19},
issue = {10},
pages = {104034},
abstract = {Armed conflict has many adverse impacts beyond violence such as increasing risks of natural hazards. Analyses of the interactions between flood risks and armed conflict are essential for developing effective policies and strategies to address both challenges. This study aims to develop conceptual and analytical socio-hydrological frameworks for assessing how armed conflict can impact flood risks. The frameworks postulate a link between armed conflict and flood vulnerability, given that armed conflict creates unique challenges that exacerbate the effects of floods. Our conceptual framework identifies routes through which armed conflict affects vulnerability to floods, such as damage to infrastructure, population displacement and density, weak governance, and less awareness, resulting in lower resilience, higher susceptibility, and increased flood vulnerability and risk. Our analytical framework uses flood modeling to evaluate flood hazards and incorporates spatial data related to armed conflict zones, nighttime light, population classification by age, land price, land cover, and rural/urban areas classification. We take Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan, as a case study in view of its armed conflict that erupted in 2023. By highlighting the linkages between armed conflict and flood risk, this study contributes to conceptualizing the broader interlinkages between conflict and environmental systems. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating conflict analysis with disaster risk management strategies. We encourage collaboration between humanitarian, environmental, and security sectors to improve preparedness, response, and resilience in conflict-affected regions. While our analysis for Khartoum is based on conflict zones in the early stages of the conflict and uses simple estimates for conflict vulnerability contribution, the proposed frameworks provide groundwork for assessing changes in flood risk in Sudan and other conflict regions around the world.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Armed conflict has many adverse impacts beyond violence such as increasing risks of natural hazards. Analyses of the interactions between flood risks and armed conflict are essential for developing effective policies and strategies to address both challenges. This study aims to develop conceptual and analytical socio-hydrological frameworks for assessing how armed conflict can impact flood risks. The frameworks postulate a link between armed conflict and flood vulnerability, given that armed conflict creates unique challenges that exacerbate the effects of floods. Our conceptual framework identifies routes through which armed conflict affects vulnerability to floods, such as damage to infrastructure, population displacement and density, weak governance, and less awareness, resulting in lower resilience, higher susceptibility, and increased flood vulnerability and risk. Our analytical framework uses flood modeling to evaluate flood hazards and incorporates spatial data related to armed conflict zones, nighttime light, population classification by age, land price, land cover, and rural/urban areas classification. We take Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan, as a case study in view of its armed conflict that erupted in 2023. By highlighting the linkages between armed conflict and flood risk, this study contributes to conceptualizing the broader interlinkages between conflict and environmental systems. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating conflict analysis with disaster risk management strategies. We encourage collaboration between humanitarian, environmental, and security sectors to improve preparedness, response, and resilience in conflict-affected regions. While our analysis for Khartoum is based on conflict zones in the early stages of the conflict and uses simple estimates for conflict vulnerability contribution, the proposed frameworks provide groundwork for assessing changes in flood risk in Sudan and other conflict regions around the world.
7.
Basheer, Mohammed; Siddig, Khalid; Elnour, Zuhal; Ahmed, Mosab; Ringler, Claudia
Toward integrated dam assessment: evaluating multi-dimensional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan Journal Article
In: Environmental Research Letters, vol. 19, no. 10, pp. 104067, 2024.
@article{Basheer2024e,
title = {Toward integrated dam assessment: evaluating multi-dimensional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan},
author = {Mohammed Basheer and Khalid Siddig and Zuhal Elnour and Mosab Ahmed and Claudia Ringler},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7744},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ad7744},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-01},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
volume = {19},
number = {10},
pages = {104067},
abstract = {The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile is expected to influence many ecosystem services, such as flood regulation, hydro-electricity production, food supply, and habitat provision, among others. Understanding these impacts (positive and negative) requires a comprehensive evaluation framework. This study develops and applies an integrated simulation framework for assessing the impacts of the GERD on Sudan, focusing on the simultaneous economywide effects of riverine flood hazards, irrigation water supply, hydropower generation, and floodplain-dependent industries, namely traditional fired clay brick production. The simulation framework incorporates three models: a river infrastructure system model, a flood model, and a Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results indicate positive impacts for hydropower generation and flood control, marginal benefits for water supply to existing irrigation, and negative consequences for brick production and the construction sector. Assuming that the GERD starts its long-term operation in 2025, we find an overall positive economic impact on Sudan's Gross Domestic Product in 2025, with an increase of up to just over 0.1%, subject to river flow conditions. Recognizing the differences in impacts across sectors and income groups, the study emphasizes the need for interventions that ameliorate negative effects. While the study captures several impacts, other effects on the environment, recession agriculture, and soil fertility require further investigation. Still, our findings underscore the importance of adopting an integrated simulation approach to dam evaluation, acknowledging the interconnected nature of water and related sectors in national economies.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile is expected to influence many ecosystem services, such as flood regulation, hydro-electricity production, food supply, and habitat provision, among others. Understanding these impacts (positive and negative) requires a comprehensive evaluation framework. This study develops and applies an integrated simulation framework for assessing the impacts of the GERD on Sudan, focusing on the simultaneous economywide effects of riverine flood hazards, irrigation water supply, hydropower generation, and floodplain-dependent industries, namely traditional fired clay brick production. The simulation framework incorporates three models: a river infrastructure system model, a flood model, and a Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results indicate positive impacts for hydropower generation and flood control, marginal benefits for water supply to existing irrigation, and negative consequences for brick production and the construction sector. Assuming that the GERD starts its long-term operation in 2025, we find an overall positive economic impact on Sudan's Gross Domestic Product in 2025, with an increase of up to just over 0.1%, subject to river flow conditions. Recognizing the differences in impacts across sectors and income groups, the study emphasizes the need for interventions that ameliorate negative effects. While the study captures several impacts, other effects on the environment, recession agriculture, and soil fertility require further investigation. Still, our findings underscore the importance of adopting an integrated simulation approach to dam evaluation, acknowledging the interconnected nature of water and related sectors in national economies.
8.
Gonzalez, Jose M; Tomlinson, James; Martinez, Eduardo; Basheer, Mohammed; Obuobie, Emmanuel; Padi, Philip T; Addo, Salifu; Baisie, Rasheed; Etichia, Mikiyas; Hurford, Anthony; Bottacin-busolin, Andrea; Matthews, John; Dalton, James; Smith, D Mark; Sheffield, Justin; Panteli, Mathaios; Harou, Julien J.
Designing diversified renewable energy systems to balance multisector performance Journal Article
In: Nature Sustainability, vol. 6, pp. 415–427, 2023, ISBN: 4189302201.
@article{Gonzalez2023,
title = {Designing diversified renewable energy systems to balance multisector performance},
author = {Jose M Gonzalez and James Tomlinson and Eduardo Martinez and Mohammed Basheer and Emmanuel Obuobie and Philip T Padi and Salifu Addo and Rasheed Baisie and Mikiyas Etichia and Anthony Hurford and Andrea Bottacin-busolin and John Matthews and James Dalton and D Mark Smith and Justin Sheffield and Mathaios Panteli and Julien J. Harou},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-01033-0},
doi = {10.1038/s41893-022-01033-0},
isbn = {4189302201},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
urldate = {2023-01-01},
journal = {Nature Sustainability},
volume = {6},
pages = {415–427},
abstract = {Renewable energy system development and improved operation can mitigate climate change. In many regions, hydropower is called to counterbalance the temporal variability of intermittent renewables like solar and wind. However, using hydropower to integrate these renewables can affect aquatic ecosystems and increase cross-sectoral water conflicts. We develop and apply an artificial intelligence-assisted multisector design framework in Ghana, which shows how hydropower's flexibility alone could enable expanding intermittent renewables by 38% but would increase sub-daily Volta River flow variability by up to 22 times compared to historical baseload hydropower operations. This would damage river ecosystems and reduce agricultural sector revenues by US$169 million per year. A diversified investment strategy identified using the proposed framework, including intermittent renewables, bioenergy, transmission lines and strategic hydropower re-operation could reduce sub-daily flow variability and enhance agricultural performance while meeting future national energy service goals and reducing CO2 emissions. The tool supports national climate planning instruments such as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by steering towards diversified and efficient power systems and highlighting their sectoral and emission trade-offs and synergies. Increased},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Renewable energy system development and improved operation can mitigate climate change. In many regions, hydropower is called to counterbalance the temporal variability of intermittent renewables like solar and wind. However, using hydropower to integrate these renewables can affect aquatic ecosystems and increase cross-sectoral water conflicts. We develop and apply an artificial intelligence-assisted multisector design framework in Ghana, which shows how hydropower's flexibility alone could enable expanding intermittent renewables by 38% but would increase sub-daily Volta River flow variability by up to 22 times compared to historical baseload hydropower operations. This would damage river ecosystems and reduce agricultural sector revenues by US$169 million per year. A diversified investment strategy identified using the proposed framework, including intermittent renewables, bioenergy, transmission lines and strategic hydropower re-operation could reduce sub-daily flow variability and enhance agricultural performance while meeting future national energy service goals and reducing CO2 emissions. The tool supports national climate planning instruments such as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by steering towards diversified and efficient power systems and highlighting their sectoral and emission trade-offs and synergies. Increased
9.
Basheer, Mohammed; Nechifor, Victor; Calzadilla, Alvaro; Gebrechorkos, Solomon; Pritchard, David; Forsythe, Nathan; Gonzalez, Jose M; Sheffield, Justin; Fowler, Hayley J.; Harou, Julien J.
Negotiating Nile infrastructure management should consider climate change uncertainties Journal Article
In: Nature Climate Change, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 17–19, 2023, ISBN: 4155802201.
@article{Basheer2023,
title = {Negotiating Nile infrastructure management should consider climate change uncertainties},
author = {Mohammed Basheer and Victor Nechifor and Alvaro Calzadilla and Solomon Gebrechorkos and David Pritchard and Nathan Forsythe and Jose M Gonzalez and Justin Sheffield and Hayley J. Fowler and Julien J. Harou},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01557-5},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-022-01557-5},
isbn = {4155802201},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
volume = {13},
number = {1},
pages = {17–19},
publisher = {Springer US},
address = {Washington, D.C},
institution = {International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)},
abstract = {High uncertainty exists in the projected climate change impacts on the Nile's economies and water-dependent sectors. Under these uncertainties, managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam cooperatively and adaptively can produce economic and water management benefits for Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
High uncertainty exists in the projected climate change impacts on the Nile's economies and water-dependent sectors. Under these uncertainties, managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam cooperatively and adaptively can produce economic and water management benefits for Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.
10.
Basheer, Mohammed; Siddig, Khalid; Elnour, Zuhal; Ahmed, Mosab; Ringler, Claudia
Integrated simulation framework for the impacts of large dams — example of the GERD Technical Report
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Washington, D.C, 2023.
@techreport{Basheer2023b,
title = {Integrated simulation framework for the impacts of large dams — example of the GERD},
author = {Mohammed Basheer and Khalid Siddig and Zuhal Elnour and Mosab Ahmed and Claudia Ringler},
url = {https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137061},
doi = {10.2499/p15738coll2.137061},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
pages = {1–7},
address = {Washington, D.C},
institution = {International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)},
abstract = {Efficient water resources management is essential for the sustainable development of nations, and large dams are an important tool for achieving this endeavor. Here, we present an integrated approach to simulating the impacts of large dams, integrating river systems infrastructure, hydrodynamic, and economywide models. We apply the framework to examine the biophysical, GDP, and distributional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Sudan.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {techreport}
}
Efficient water resources management is essential for the sustainable development of nations, and large dams are an important tool for achieving this endeavor. Here, we present an integrated approach to simulating the impacts of large dams, integrating river systems infrastructure, hydrodynamic, and economywide models. We apply the framework to examine the biophysical, GDP, and distributional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Sudan.
11.
Basheer, Mohammed; Nechifor, Victor; Calzadilla, Alvaro; Gebrechorkos, Solomon; Pritchard, David; Forsythe, Nathan; Gonzalez, Jose; Sheffield, Justin; Fowler, Hayley J.; Harou, Julien J.
Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties Journal Article
In: Nature Climate Change, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 48–57, 2023.
@article{Basheer2023c,
title = {Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties},
author = {Mohammed Basheer and Victor Nechifor and Alvaro Calzadilla and Solomon Gebrechorkos and David Pritchard and Nathan Forsythe and Jose Gonzalez and Justin Sheffield and Hayley J. Fowler and Julien J. Harou},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
volume = {13},
number = {1},
pages = {48–57},
publisher = {Springer US},
abstract = {The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands for river-system-related services and political tensions between the riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile can help alleviate some of these stressors and tensions. Here we present a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by designing a cooperative adaptive management policy for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances the transboundary economic and biophysical interests of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. This shows that if the three countries compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands for river-system-related services and political tensions between the riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile can help alleviate some of these stressors and tensions. Here we present a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by designing a cooperative adaptive management policy for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances the transboundary economic and biophysical interests of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. This shows that if the three countries compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.
12.
Basheer, Mohammed; Nechifor, Victor; Calzadilla, Alvaro; Gebrechorkos, Solomon; Pritchard, David; Forsythe, Nathan; Gonzalez, Jose; Sheffield, Justin; Fowler, Hayley J.; Harou, Julien J.
Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties Journal Article
In: Nature Climate Change, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 48–57, 2023.
@article{Basheer2023d,
title = {Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties},
author = {Mohammed Basheer and Victor Nechifor and Alvaro Calzadilla and Solomon Gebrechorkos and David Pritchard and Nathan Forsythe and Jose Gonzalez and Justin Sheffield and Hayley J. Fowler and Julien J. Harou},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
volume = {13},
number = {1},
pages = {48–57},
publisher = {Springer US},
abstract = {The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands for river-system-related services and political tensions between the riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile can help alleviate some of these stressors and tensions. Here we present a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by designing a cooperative adaptive management policy for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances the transboundary economic and biophysical interests of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. This shows that if the three countries compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands for river-system-related services and political tensions between the riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile can help alleviate some of these stressors and tensions. Here we present a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by designing a cooperative adaptive management policy for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances the transboundary economic and biophysical interests of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. This shows that if the three countries compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.
13.
Etichia, Mikiyas; Bravo, Ruben; Martinez, Eduardo; Basheer, Mohammed; Endegnanew, Atsede; Panteli, Mathaios; Harou, Julien J.
Technical report on the East Africa power planning Technical Report
Nile Basin Initiative Entebbe, 2022.
@techreport{Etichia2022,
title = {Technical report on the East Africa power planning},
author = {Mikiyas Etichia and Ruben Bravo and Eduardo Martinez and Mohammed Basheer and Atsede Endegnanew and Mathaios Panteli and Julien J. Harou},
url = {http://ikp.nilebasin.org/sites/default/files/WRM-2022-02_Technical Report on the East Africa Power Planning .pdf},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-01-01},
urldate = {2022-01-01},
address = {Entebbe},
institution = {Nile Basin Initiative},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {techreport}
}
14.
Basheer, Mohammed; Nechifor, Victor; Calzadilla, Alvaro; Ringler, Claudia; Hulme, David; Harou, Julien J.
Balancing national economic policy outcomes for sustainable development Journal Article
In: Nature Communications, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 5041, 2022, ISSN: 2041-1723.
@article{Basheer2022,
title = {Balancing national economic policy outcomes for sustainable development},
author = {Mohammed Basheer and Victor Nechifor and Alvaro Calzadilla and Claudia Ringler and David Hulme and Julien J. Harou},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32415-9},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-32415-9},
issn = {2041-1723},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-01-01},
urldate = {2022-01-01},
journal = {Nature Communications},
volume = {13},
number = {1},
pages = {5041},
address = {Washington, D.C},
institution = {World Bank Group},
series = {Policy Research Working Paper},
abstract = {The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim at jointly improving economic, social, and environmental outcomes for human prosperity and planetary health. However, designing national economic policies that support advancement across multiple Sustainable Development Goals is hindered by the complexities of multi-sector economies and often conflicting policies. To address this, we introduce a national-scale design framework that can enable policymakers to sift through complex, non-linear, multi-sector policy spaces to identify efficient policy portfolios that balance economic, social, and environmental goals. The framework combines economy-wide sustainability simulation and artificial intelligence-driven multiobjective, multi-SDG policy search and machine learning. The framework can support multi-sector, multi-actor policy deliberation to screen efficient policy portfolios. We demonstrate the utility of the framework for a case study of Egypt by identifying policy portfolios that achieve efficient mixes of poverty and inequality reduction, economic growth, and climate change mitigation. The results show that integrated policy strategies can help achieve sustainable development while balancing adverse economic, social, and political impacts of reforms.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim at jointly improving economic, social, and environmental outcomes for human prosperity and planetary health. However, designing national economic policies that support advancement across multiple Sustainable Development Goals is hindered by the complexities of multi-sector economies and often conflicting policies. To address this, we introduce a national-scale design framework that can enable policymakers to sift through complex, non-linear, multi-sector policy spaces to identify efficient policy portfolios that balance economic, social, and environmental goals. The framework combines economy-wide sustainability simulation and artificial intelligence-driven multiobjective, multi-SDG policy search and machine learning. The framework can support multi-sector, multi-actor policy deliberation to screen efficient policy portfolios. We demonstrate the utility of the framework for a case study of Egypt by identifying policy portfolios that achieve efficient mixes of poverty and inequality reduction, economic growth, and climate change mitigation. The results show that integrated policy strategies can help achieve sustainable development while balancing adverse economic, social, and political impacts of reforms.
15.
Nechifor, Victor; Basheer, Mohammed; Calzadilla, Alvaro; Obuobie, Emmanuel; Harou, Julien J.
Financing national scale energy projects in developing countries – An economy-wide evaluation of Ghana's Bui Dam Journal Article
In: Energy Economics, vol. 111, no. April, pp. 106065, 2022, ISSN: 0140-9883.
@article{Nechifor2022,
title = {Financing national scale energy projects in developing countries – An economy-wide evaluation of Ghana's Bui Dam},
author = {Victor Nechifor and Mohammed Basheer and Alvaro Calzadilla and Emmanuel Obuobie and Julien J. Harou},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106065},
doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106065},
issn = {0140-9883},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-01-01},
urldate = {2022-01-01},
journal = {Energy Economics},
volume = {111},
number = {April},
pages = {106065},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
16.
Basheer, Mohammed; Oommen, Thomas; Takamatsu, Masatsugu; Suzuki, Sachi
Machine learning and sensitivity analysis approach to quantify uncertainty in landslide susceptibility mapping Working paper
2022.
@workingpaper{Basheer2022b,
title = {Machine learning and sensitivity analysis approach to quantify uncertainty in landslide susceptibility mapping},
author = {Mohammed Basheer and Thomas Oommen and Masatsugu Takamatsu and Sachi Suzuki},
doi = {10.1596/1813-9450-10264},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-01-01},
urldate = {2022-01-01},
address = {Washington, D.C},
institution = {World Bank Group},
series = {Policy Research Working Paper},
abstract = {Mitigating the impacts of landslides requires quantifying the susceptibility of different infrastructures to this hazard through landslide susceptibility mapping. The mapping requires overlaying the spatial effects of multiple factors that contribute to the occurrence of landslide events (rain- fall, land cover, distance to roads, lithology, and slope) and this process requires assigning weights to the different factors contributing to landslides. This study introduces a new statistical approach for quantifying the weights used in landslide susceptibility mapping and their associated uncertainty. The proposed approach combines machine learning (random forest classification) with large-scale sen- sitivity analysis to derive the uncertainty ranges of weights used in landslide susceptibility mapping. The study demon- strates the approach for a case study of the Chittagong Hill Tracts and Sylhet divisions of Bangladesh to understand the implications of weight uncertainty for road susceptibility to landslides. The case study results show that distance to roads is the most influential factor to determine the like- lihood of the occurrence of landslide events, followed by the land cover type. Given weight uncertainty, the percent- age of road lengths in the study area under extremely high susceptibility to landslides ranges from around 20 to 38 per- cent. The tolerance level to weight uncertainty is a crucial determinant of investment costs and is ultimately a critical element for decision making to relevant institutions and affected stakeholders. A conservative selection of weights from within the uncertainty range (a weight combination that results in the highest susceptibility) means that the risk is minimized but with a high investment cost.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {workingpaper}
}
Mitigating the impacts of landslides requires quantifying the susceptibility of different infrastructures to this hazard through landslide susceptibility mapping. The mapping requires overlaying the spatial effects of multiple factors that contribute to the occurrence of landslide events (rain- fall, land cover, distance to roads, lithology, and slope) and this process requires assigning weights to the different factors contributing to landslides. This study introduces a new statistical approach for quantifying the weights used in landslide susceptibility mapping and their associated uncertainty. The proposed approach combines machine learning (random forest classification) with large-scale sen- sitivity analysis to derive the uncertainty ranges of weights used in landslide susceptibility mapping. The study demon- strates the approach for a case study of the Chittagong Hill Tracts and Sylhet divisions of Bangladesh to understand the implications of weight uncertainty for road susceptibility to landslides. The case study results show that distance to roads is the most influential factor to determine the like- lihood of the occurrence of landslide events, followed by the land cover type. Given weight uncertainty, the percent- age of road lengths in the study area under extremely high susceptibility to landslides ranges from around 20 to 38 per- cent. The tolerance level to weight uncertainty is a crucial determinant of investment costs and is ultimately a critical element for decision making to relevant institutions and affected stakeholders. A conservative selection of weights from within the uncertainty range (a weight combination that results in the highest susceptibility) means that the risk is minimized but with a high investment cost.
17.
Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Saad, Suhair A. Gayoum; Basheer, Mohammed; Rahma, Abbas E.; Gore, Emmanuela Darius Lado
Exploring the urban water-energy-food nexus under environmental hazards within the Nile Journal Article
In: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 21–41, 2021, ISSN: 1436-3240.
@article{Elagib2021,
title = {Exploring the urban water-energy-food nexus under environmental hazards within the Nile},
author = {Nadir Ahmed Elagib and Suhair A. Gayoum Saad and Mohammed Basheer and Abbas E. Rahma and Emmanuela Darius Lado Gore},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-019-01706-x},
doi = {10.1007/s00477-019-01706-x},
issn = {1436-3240},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-07-01},
journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
volume = {35},
number = {1},
pages = {21–41},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
abstract = {The integrative approach of water, energy, and food nexus (WEF nexus) is now widely accepted to offer better planning, development, and operation of these resources. This study presents a first attempt towards understanding the WEF nexus of urban environments in the Nile River Basin under conditions of hydrological droughts and fluvial floods. A case study was conducted for the capital of Sudan, Khartoum, at the confluence of the White Nile and the Blue Nile for illustration. The results were based on analyses of river flow and water turbidity data, field observations, a printed questionnaire and an interview of farmers practicing irrigated agriculture, and hydropower modeling. The study analyzes indicators for the association of the river water resources environment (intra-annual regime, quantity, and quality), the status of urban irrigated agriculture, water treatment for domestic use, and hydropower generation under hydrological extremes, i.e. droughts and fluvial floods. It additionally examines the consequent interactions between the impacts on three sectors. The present study shows how floods and droughts impose impacts on seasonal river water quality and quantity, water treatment for domestic use, irrigated agriculture, and hydro-energy supply in an urban environment. The results demonstrate how the two hydrological phenomena determine the state of hydropower generation from dams, i.e. high energy production during floods and vice versa during droughts. Hydropower dams, in turn, could induce cons in the form of low fertile soils in the downstream due to sediment retention by the reservoir. Finally, present and potential options to minimize the above risks are discussed. This study is hoped to offer good support for integrated decision making to increase the resource use efficiency over the urban environment within the Nile Basin.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The integrative approach of water, energy, and food nexus (WEF nexus) is now widely accepted to offer better planning, development, and operation of these resources. This study presents a first attempt towards understanding the WEF nexus of urban environments in the Nile River Basin under conditions of hydrological droughts and fluvial floods. A case study was conducted for the capital of Sudan, Khartoum, at the confluence of the White Nile and the Blue Nile for illustration. The results were based on analyses of river flow and water turbidity data, field observations, a printed questionnaire and an interview of farmers practicing irrigated agriculture, and hydropower modeling. The study analyzes indicators for the association of the river water resources environment (intra-annual regime, quantity, and quality), the status of urban irrigated agriculture, water treatment for domestic use, and hydropower generation under hydrological extremes, i.e. droughts and fluvial floods. It additionally examines the consequent interactions between the impacts on three sectors. The present study shows how floods and droughts impose impacts on seasonal river water quality and quantity, water treatment for domestic use, irrigated agriculture, and hydro-energy supply in an urban environment. The results demonstrate how the two hydrological phenomena determine the state of hydropower generation from dams, i.e. high energy production during floods and vice versa during droughts. Hydropower dams, in turn, could induce cons in the form of low fertile soils in the downstream due to sediment retention by the reservoir. Finally, present and potential options to minimize the above risks are discussed. This study is hoped to offer good support for integrated decision making to increase the resource use efficiency over the urban environment within the Nile Basin.
18.
Basheer, Mohammed; Sulieman, Rayyan; Ribbe, Lars
Exploring management approaches for water and energy in the data-scarce Tekeze-Atbara Basin under hydrologic uncertainty Journal Article
In: International Journal of Water Resources Development, vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 182–207, 2021.
@article{Basheer2021,
title = {Exploring management approaches for water and energy in the data-scarce Tekeze-Atbara Basin under hydrologic uncertainty},
author = {Mohammed Basheer and Rayyan Sulieman and Lars Ribbe},
editor = {C. Carmona-Moreno and E. Crestaz and Y. Cimmarrusti and F. Farinosi and M. Biedler and A. Amani and A. Mishra and A. Carmona-Gutierrez},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2019.1591941},
doi = {10.1080/07900627.2019.1591941},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-04-01},
booktitle = {Implementing the Water–Energy–Food–Ecosystems Nexus and Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals},
journal = {International Journal of Water Resources Development},
volume = {37},
number = {2},
pages = {182–207},
publisher = {UNESCO, European Union and IWA Publishing},
address = {Paris, Ispra, and London},
chapter = {Chaper 7},
abstract = {This study examines management approaches for hydropower generation and irrigation and domestic water supply for the Tekeze-Atbara, a transboundary river between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan, in above- and below-normal hydrologic conditions, considering current and future water demand scenarios. Satellite data are used to substitute for unavailable or inaccessible ground meteorological and dam data. Based on three examined coordina- tion scenarios, the analysis finds that coordinating the manage- ment of the Sudanese dams would bring significant benefits to water supply and energy generation. An optimization analysis is necessary to reveal the full value of coordination of dams in the Tekeze-Atbara Basin.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This study examines management approaches for hydropower generation and irrigation and domestic water supply for the Tekeze-Atbara, a transboundary river between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan, in above- and below-normal hydrologic conditions, considering current and future water demand scenarios. Satellite data are used to substitute for unavailable or inaccessible ground meteorological and dam data. Based on three examined coordina- tion scenarios, the analysis finds that coordinating the manage- ment of the Sudanese dams would bring significant benefits to water supply and energy generation. An optimization analysis is necessary to reveal the full value of coordination of dams in the Tekeze-Atbara Basin.
19.
Siddig, Khalid; Basheer, Mohammed; Luckmann, Jonas
Economy-wide assessment of potential long-term impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan Journal Article
In: Water International, vol. 46, no. 3, pp. 325–341, 2021, ISSN: 0250-8060.
@article{Siddig2021,
title = {Economy-wide assessment of potential long-term impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan},
author = {Khalid Siddig and Mohammed Basheer and Jonas Luckmann},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2021.1885126},
doi = {10.1080/02508060.2021.1885126},
issn = {0250-8060},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Water International},
volume = {46},
number = {3},
pages = {325–341},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to dou- ble Ethiopia's electricity generation and impact River Nile flows to Sudan and Egypt. We analyse potential economy-wide impacts on Sudan of the GERD's long-term operation using a computable general equilibrium model and outputs of previous studies from biophysical models. Based on a 20% increase in hydropower and an assumed rapid irrigation expansion timeline, the results show that the GERD could help increase Sudan's accumulated gross domestic product (GDP) by US$47-83 billion over the period 2020-60 (exclud- ing initial investment costs and other GERD negative and positive impacts). The choice of crops in new irrigation schemes is key to increasing Sudan's macro-economic benefits.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to dou- ble Ethiopia's electricity generation and impact River Nile flows to Sudan and Egypt. We analyse potential economy-wide impacts on Sudan of the GERD's long-term operation using a computable general equilibrium model and outputs of previous studies from biophysical models. Based on a 20% increase in hydropower and an assumed rapid irrigation expansion timeline, the results show that the GERD could help increase Sudan's accumulated gross domestic product (GDP) by US$47-83 billion over the period 2020-60 (exclud- ing initial investment costs and other GERD negative and positive impacts). The choice of crops in new irrigation schemes is key to increasing Sudan's macro-economic benefits.
20.
Basheer, Mohammed; Nechifor, Victor; Calzadilla, Alvaro; Siddig, Khalid; Etichia, Mikiyas; Whittington, Dale; Hulme, David; Harou, Julien J.
Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience Journal Article
In: Nature Communications, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 5622, 2021, ISSN: 2041-1723.
@article{Basheer2021a,
title = {Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience},
author = {Mohammed Basheer and Victor Nechifor and Alvaro Calzadilla and Khalid Siddig and Mikiyas Etichia and Dale Whittington and David Hulme and Julien J. Harou},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25877-w},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-25877-w},
issn = {2041-1723},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
urldate = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Nature Communications},
volume = {12},
number = {1},
pages = {5622},
abstract = {The landscape of water infrastructure in the Nile Basin is changing with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Although this dam could improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and its neighbors, there is a lack of consensus between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the dam operation. We introduce a new modeling framework that simulates the Nile River System and Egypt's macroeconomy, with dynamic feedbacks between the river system and the macroeconomy. Because the two systems “coevolve” throughout multi-year simulations, we term this a “coevolutionary” modeling framework. The framework is used to demonstrate that a coordinated operating strategy could allow the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to help meet water demands in Egypt during periods of water scarcity and increase hydropower generation and storage in Ethiopia during high flows. Here we show the hydrological and macroeconomic performance of this coordinated strategy compared to a strategy that resembles a recent draft proposal for the operation of the dam discussed in Washington DC.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The landscape of water infrastructure in the Nile Basin is changing with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Although this dam could improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and its neighbors, there is a lack of consensus between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the dam operation. We introduce a new modeling framework that simulates the Nile River System and Egypt's macroeconomy, with dynamic feedbacks between the river system and the macroeconomy. Because the two systems “coevolve” throughout multi-year simulations, we term this a “coevolutionary” modeling framework. The framework is used to demonstrate that a coordinated operating strategy could allow the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to help meet water demands in Egypt during periods of water scarcity and increase hydropower generation and storage in Ethiopia during high flows. Here we show the hydrological and macroeconomic performance of this coordinated strategy compared to a strategy that resembles a recent draft proposal for the operation of the dam discussed in Washington DC.
